Crossroads -- Why are so many churches shrinking?

Doctrinal questions are important, but so are many other trends in congregational life

When it comes to basic statistics, the 1960s and ‘70s were the high-water mark for liberal mainline Protestants.

Pews were often full and strategic mergers — such as the process that eventually created the Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) in 1983 — led to membership totals that inspired ecclesiastical bureaucrats to dream about bold “reforms” in the future (click for a timeline of LGBTQ+ activism in the Episcopal Church).

Times have changed, to say the least — leading to an understated Associated Press report that served as the hook for this week’s “Crossroads” podcast. The headline on that report by Peter Smith: “Protestant denominations try new ideas as they face declines in members and money.” Here’s the thesis:

While the circumstances vary from one denomination to another, there are some common threads. Several Protestant denominations are losing members, particularly the Episcopal, Presbyterian, Methodist and other historic mainline groups that have not only been aging and shrinking but have suffered schisms as they moved in more progressive directions. …

As a result, denominations have had to do less with less — not only cutting budgets to balance the bottom line, but making strategic changes and trying out new ideas.

New ideas? For the most part, they consist of efforts to downsize while using language about efficiency and modernization. As the AP report noted:

In their heyday, denominational offices oversaw mission organizations that sent large numbers of church workers to far corners of the world. They put out officially sanctioned hymnals, devotional guides, magazines and Sunday School materials. They organized big national conventions that set — and fiercely debated — policy and doctrine. They set standards for how ministers were trained, credentialed and disciplined. They ran historical societies and pension funds for ministers. …

Nowadays, not only has trust in centralized leadership faded, but there often are fewer church members to support programs and activities. Many denominational churches are acting more like nondenominational ones — downloading music or Sunday School lessons from independent rather than official sources.

The bottom line, as always: There is no painless way to cut a shrinking pie.

During the podcast, I mentioned that many of these trends that were anticipated in a famous book by a National Council of Churches executive — Dean M. Kelly — with this blunt title: “Why Conservative Churches Are Growing: A Study in Sociology of Religion.”

Believe it or not, this book was published in 1972, during the glory days of mainline Protestantism.

The key was that Kelley focused on trends that mixed sociology, as stated in the title, with doctrine. This led prophetic statements that activists and scholars have been quoting for decades — such as this 2011 piece by the Rev. R. Albert Mohler, Jr., president of Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Kentucky.

… Kelley argued that evangelical churches grow precisely because they do what the more liberal congregations and denominations intentionally reject — they make serious demands of believers in terms of doctrine and behavior.

“Amid the current neglect and hostility toward organized religion in general,” Kelley noted, “the conservative churches, holding to seemingly outmoded theology and making strict demands on their members, have equaled or surpassed in growth the early percentage increases of the nation’s population.”

There was more strong language ahead:

“Strong” religious movements make demands of their members in terms of both belief and behavior. These churches demand adherence to highly defined doctrines that are to be received, believed, and taught without compromise. They also understand themselves to be separate from the larger secular culture, and the requirements of membership in the church define a distance from secular beliefs and behaviors.

The liberal churches are, by their own decision, opposed to these very principles. The mainline Protestant churches desired to be taken seriously and respected by the intellectual elites. They wanted the benefits of cultural acceptance and esteem. They lowered doctrinal and behavioral requirements and made membership more a matter of personal preference than of theological conviction.

Kelley concluded: “To the person who is concerned about the future of the ecumenical churches, this theory can offer little encouragement. The mainline denominations will continue to exist on a diminishing scale for decades, perhaps for centuries, and will continue to supply some people with a dilute and undemanding form of meaning, which may be all they want.”

Conservative religious leaders have long enjoyed quoting Kelley, for obvious reasons.

The problem is that, while the mainline Protestant world has continued its rapid decline, current trends are affecting other denominations and churches that, in doctrinal terms, are “conservative” to one degree or another. For example, the world of nondenominational Protestantism (must-read Ryan Burge essay here) has continued to evolve and grow, siphoning members away from the Southern Baptist Convention and other evangelical bodies.

Also, many flocks that are “conservative” on paper, in terms of their doctrine, are rather “mainline” in terms of the practical details of congregational life.

Truth is, some Roman Catholic parishes are growing, while others are shrinking and closing. Many Southern Baptist congregations are growing — even in the Northeast — while many others have plateaued or started to decline. While the growth seen in many Eastern Orthodox churches has fueled headlines, others are showing clear signs of decline.

In some religious traditions, it’s easy to find growing and shrinking congregations in the same cities and regions.

Why do churches shrink?

National membership statistics are often vague and misleading. Journalists need to probe trends in marriage rites, adult baptisms (evidence of evangelism), infant baptisms (evidence of growing families), the ordination of new ministers and the birth of new congregations. Another crucial trend? “For sale” signs in front of sanctuaries, denominational offices, seminaries and colleges.

Why do churches grow? Study the very same trends.

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