If you fly up to high altitude to study the past 50 years of American religious life, here is what you will see.
Yes, there is the trend toward “nones” and then the “none of the above” believers, which began with the “Sheila-ism” phenomenon that the late sociologist Robert Bellah described in his classic book “Habits of the Heart: Individualism and Commitment in American Life.” In it, the woman who was the real Sheila proclaims:
"I can't remember the last time I went to church. My faith has carried me a long way. It's Sheilaism. Just my own little voice. ... It's just try to love yourself and be gentle with yourself. You know, I guess, take care of each other. I think God would want us to take care of each other."
Remember, that was already happening in the 1980s.
Two other trends are impossible to avoid: The decline of the old “mainline” denominations and the surging numbers in evangelical and Pentecostal churches.
Strangely enough, this brings us — through the back door — to the New York Times story that served as a hook for this week’s “Crossroads” podcast. The magisterial headline on that piece proclaimed:
In a First Among Christians, Young Men Are More Religious Than Young Women
At Grace Church in Waco, Texas, the Generation Z gender divide can be seen in the pews. It has the potential to reshape both politics and family life.
This is supposed to be a story about why so many young men are walking through the doors of traditional Christian churches in the post-pandemic years. The men get some ink here, but the final word — the high ground, in debate terms — was given to progressive evangelicals and exvangelicals who believe the real story is that young women are fleeing these same churches.
Why? Because these churches have failed to modernize their doctrines on the ordination of women, “reproductive rights” and other gender doctrines. In other words, the young men are flocking into “bad religion” churches, while the young women are — from the Gray Lady’s point of view — yearning for “good religion” churches. In a way, this week’s podcast was the sequel to this recent “Crossroads” offering: “Modern, progressive young women flee pews!”
First, here is a large chunk of Times background material about the male-friendly growth of Grace Church in Waco, Texas, which is used as a case study for an important national trend:
… For the first time in modern American history, young men are now more religious than their female peers. They attend services more often and are more likely to identify as religious.
“We’ve never seen it before,” Ryan Burge, an associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, said of the flip.
Among Generation Z Christians, this dynamic is playing out in a stark way: The men are staying in church, while the women are leaving at a remarkable clip.
Church membership has been dropping in the United States for years. But within Gen Z, almost 40 percent of women now describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated, compared with 34 percent of men, according to a survey last year of more than 5,000 Americans by the Survey Center on American Life at the American Enterprise Institute.
In every other age group, men were more likely to be unaffiliated. That tracks with research that has shown that women have been consistently more religious than men, a finding so reliable that some scholars have characterized it as something like a universal human truth.
The men and women of Gen Z are also on divergent trajectories in almost every facet of their lives, including education, sexuality and spirituality.
Actually the numbers are quite complex and nuanced, especially when comparing trends among Millennials and Generation Z. I would urge readers to read this new Burge deep dive into “The Religion of America's Young Adults — And how the gender gap could be the story going forward.”
The young men at Grace Church are — to be blunt — looking for a door into marriage, family and adult life. In Times terms that sounds like this:
… They place a higher value on traditional family life. Childless young men are likelier than childless young women to say they want to become parents someday, by a margin of 12 percentage points, according to a survey last year by Pew. The young men at Grace and Hope churches “are looking for leadership, they’re looking for clarity, they’re looking for meaning,” said Bracken Arnhart, a Hope Church pastor.
As you would expect, all of this has “political” content, as well — since clashes between ancient Christian doctrines and the Sexual Revolution often lead to battles over legislation and, ultimately, cases at the U.S. Supreme Court.
But this is where the Times switches to the story behind the headline, the issues that define the trend that matters the most to the editors:
Young women … are moving past the debates — and out the church doors.
About two-thirds of women ages 18 to 29 say that “most churches and religious congregations” do not treat men and women equally, the Survey Center on American Life found.
At this point, there is a brief glimpse of another big story that I mentioned earlier, a sobering reality that complicates this story’s crystal-clear conclusions about what is happening here:
Opening more official roles to women, though, may not win them back: Many of the largest liberal denominations that ordain women are in steep decline.
That’s one way to put it. Truth be told, the “Seven Sisters” of the old world of mainline Protestantism are in a demographic death dive that began in the 1970s. Yes, many conservative denominations have seen smaller, slower declines in their numbers (or have found a plateau) — in part because of the explosive growth of nondenominational Protestantism (click here for a Google search file on that).
If you want to see an interesting discussion of the current convert surge — but in a radically different context — check out this YouTube discussion between an Eastern Orthodox Internet pro, Father Andrew Stephen Damick, and historian Matthew Namee, my colleague at the Orthodox Studies Institute at Saint Constantine College in Houston. Once again, we are talking about “the guys, the guys, the guys.”
In the podcast, I noted two ongoing trends linked to the issues that were covered, or were avoided, in the Times feature.
(1) Churches that are in rapid decline contain a high percentage of older women and a much lower percentage of older men. Also, there is a shortage of young adults, period, and children. This is consistent with the older trend mentioned in the Times piece — that women have traditionally been more “religious” than men. For a conservative Catholic take on that, see the blunt book “The Church Impotent: The Feminization of Christianity” by Leon Podles.
(2) Churches that are growing, these days, contain a high percentage of young male converts, as well as converts that arrive in pairs — young women and men who are married or engaged. Yes, it is common to find fewer young, single women. This leads to a question that I asked in the podcast: Young men are, obviously, inviting their friends to church. Young women? Not so much. Why is that?
The bottom line: The big issue in this Times trend story is whether young men and women affirm traditional church teachings on marriage and family.
Let me stress that it’s essential to note that, in the decades leading to the #ChurchToo era, way too many conservative churches buried their sins linked to the sexual abuse of young women and, yes, young men. And in the screens-culture era, millions of young women are struggling with depression, anxiety, gender dysphoria and related issues.
Do single women see religious institutions as places to seek help? The Times story implies that young men are — many after reading the works of Jordan Peterson — flocking into churches in an attempt to get their lives together. All the evidence points to that.
In moral, cultural and political terms, also remember these recent Pew Research Center numbers, which were featured in that earlier podcast and post on young women leaving churches:
* Married men are a bit more Republican (59%), while never-married men are rather faithful Democrats (61%).
* Married women favor the GOP by a narrow margin (50% to 45%), while never-married women are enthusiastic Democrats, by a wide margin (72%).
* Americans who live with a partner outside of marriage are much more likely to be Democrats, as are those who are divorced. LGBTQ+ Americans are overwhelmingly Democrats.
In conclusion, let me repeat advice that I have — in recent years — offered journalists covering trends linked to the declining and rising statistics in religious life.
Instead of looking at membership claims, or even attendance figures, ask religious leaders for updates on the number of marriages taking place in their congregations, as well as baptisms — of infants, young people and converts of all ages.
Yes, the gender questions are important. But the issue that looms over all the others is marriage. Are clergy paying attention to the shocking decline in marriage rites, both in the church and in American culture as a whole?
Enjoy the podcast and, please, pass it along to others.
I am a deacon serving at a Catholic church in western NC. Over the past couple of years I have noticed an increase in young men attending our Sunday Masses.
Our Catholic parish is relatively well-to-do, and I see many young families. They are the future. When I'm in a secular frame of mind, I think of it as evolution in action.